Viewing archive of Monday, 22 August 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Aug 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 234 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Aug 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1272 (S21W08) produced a
C1 event at 21/2316Z, and 1271 (N17W16) produced a long duration C1
event at 22/1604Z. Both regions also produced several B-class
flares. Region 1274 (N18E42) produced a notable B9 event at
22/0949Z. Region 1271 had significant intermediate spot and
penumbral growth.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for moderate activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled, consistent with effects
from a weak coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (23-25 Aug) as effects
from the high speed stream subside.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Aug 108 Predicted 23 Aug-25 Aug 110/112/112 90 Day Mean 22 Aug 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Aug 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Aug 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Aug-25 Aug 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Aug to 25 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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