Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 August 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Aug 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1263 (N17W93) produced
a C6 x-ray flare at 10/1044Z, the largest flare of the past 24
hours. The magnetic complexity and area of Region 1263 decreased
since yesterday and it ended the period as an Ekc type spot group
with beta-gamma characteristics. A Type II (659 km/s) radio
emission occurred at 10/1607Z and was coincident with material
movement and darkening on STEREO-B EUVI imagery in the northeast
quadrant of the solar disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for moderate activity as Region 1263 rotates around
the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet with one period of
active levels at mid latitudes. The solar wind speed at the ACE
spacecraft was near 550 km/s. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field remained within +/- 4 nT of zero. A
discontinuity in density and Phi angle was observed between 10/06Z
and 07Z, when Phi became positive then rotated back to negative over
the next 8 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on Day 1 (11 Aug) with a slight
chance for active conditions, particularly at high latitudes. The
remaining two days (12-13 Aug) are expected to be predominantly
quiet. Detailed analysis of the CME associated with the X6 flare on
09/0805Z suggests the bulk of the material will not be geoeffective.
A slight disruption in the geomagnetic field may be observed with
shock passage.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
| Class M | 30% | 05% | 01% |
| Class X | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 30% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Aug 090 Predicted 11 Aug-13 Aug 095/085/085 90 Day Mean 10 Aug 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug 005/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 007/007-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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