Viewing archive of Saturday, 30 July 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jul 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 1261 (N17E22), a Dkc spot group with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic classification, produced an impulsive M9 flare at 0209Z with an associated Tenflare. There appeared to be no CME associated with the event in LASCO imagery. Region 1260 (N19W09) has shown consolidation in its trailer spots and is now classified as a Ehi spot group with a Beta magnetic configuration. Region 1263 (N18E48) has been relatively stable and did not produce any significant flaring during the period. New Region 1265 (N18W41) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels with the chance for M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active periods were likely due to a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) associated with the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream. ACE signatures indicate a possible weak CIR onset at approximately 0900Z on 30 July.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active from 31 July to 01 August due to effects from the coronal hole high speed stream. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 02 August.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Jul to 02 Aug
Class M45%45%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Jul 113
  Predicted   31 Jul-02 Aug  110/110/110
  90 Day Mean        30 Jul 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul  003/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Jul  011/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug  012/012-012/012-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul to 02 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%15%
Minor storm15%15%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%20%
Minor storm20%20%10%
Major-severe storm10%10%01%

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