Viewing archive of Friday, 29 July 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jul 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1261 (N16E33) produced
the majority of the C-class flare events. The largest was a C6/1f
at 1640Z. Region 1261 appears to be in decay and is classified as
Dai spot group with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region
1260 (N19E03) appears to show separation between the leader and
trailing spots and is classified as a Eai spot group with a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 1263 (N18E59) has been
largely quiet and stable as it rotated into view, only managing a
low level C-flare.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels with a chance for M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet on 30 July. Unsettled conditions with
possible active periods are expected on 31 July-01 August due to
effects from a coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jul to 01 Aug
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jul 112 Predicted 30 Jul-01 Aug 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 29 Jul 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jul 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug 005/005-012/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul to 01 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
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