Viewing archive of Monday, 11 July 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jul 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1249 (S18W04) produced a
C2/1f at 11/1103Z with a Type II radio signature (est. shock
velocity 977 km/s). A CME associated with this event became visible
in STEREO COR-2 imagery at 11/1209Z and had an estimated speed of
750 km/s. Region 1251 (N15E68) was numbered overnight and is
currently an Hsx-alpha type region. All other regions on the disk
appear to be relatively stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a slight chance for M-class activity for the next three days
(12-14 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active during the past 24 hours.
The increase in activity is due to a combination of the coronal hole
high speed stream (CH HSS) and the CME observed on 09 July. A Sudden
Impulse (SI) was observed at Earth at 11/0852Z with a 24 nT
deviation measured at the Boulder magnetometer indicating the
arrival of the CME. ACE spacecraft measurements indicated solar wind
velocities of 700 km/s towards the end of the period, most likely
due to the arrival of a second CH HSS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods
for the next three days (12-14 July) due to the onset of a recurrent
CH HSS and the anticipated arrival (late on day two) of the CME
observed early this morning.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jul 090 Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 092/094/094 90 Day Mean 11 Jul 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 008/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 007/007-010/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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