Viewing archive of Sunday, 10 July 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jul 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. Region 1247 (S18W15) grew in sunspot count and magnetic complexity but has remained stable and quiet. Region 1250 (S25E48) emerged on the disk early in the period and has grown rapidly to the second largest group on the visible disk. Two CMEs were observed during the period but after careful analysis, both CMEs were determined to be backsided and non-geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance for M-class events for the next three days (11-13 July) as both Region 1247 and 1250 continue to grow and evolve.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. The elevated levels are due to the continued effects of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, peaked at around 540 km/s but has since started to decay to around 450 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet to unsettled for day one (11 July) as the effects of the CH HSS wane. On day two (12 July), levels ranging from quiet to active are expected due to the combined effects from another CH HSS and the CME observed on 09 July. A return to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on day three (13 July) as effects from both events wane.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jul to 13 Jul
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Jul 091
  Predicted   11 Jul-13 Jul  092/094/094
  90 Day Mean        10 Jul 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul  010/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Jul  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul  007/007-012/012-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul to 13 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%30%20%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%40%25%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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