Viewing archive of Monday, 4 July 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jul 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jul 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 1242 (N18W82) produced two low-level B-class flares at 04/1252Z and 04/1656Z. Region 1244 (N16W53) showed an increase in area and was classified as a Dao spot group with a beta-gamma magnetic structure. Region 1243 (N17W19) showed a slight decrease in area and spots and was classified as a Cso-beta group. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare for the next three days (05-07 July).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet levels on days one and two (05-06 July). Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active levels at high latitudes, are expected on day three (07 July). The increase in activity is due to an expected recurrent coronal hole high speed stream and a possible CME passage from the partial-halo CME observed on LASCO C3 at 03/0142Z.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Jul 085
  Predicted   05 Jul-07 Jul  084/082/080
  90 Day Mean        04 Jul 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jul  006/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Jul  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Jul-07 Jul  005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jul to 07 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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