Viewing archive of Friday, 1 July 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jul 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jul 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. There were several
B-class flares observed in the past 24 hours from Region 1243
(N17E22) and new Region 1244 (N16W10). Region 1244 emerged on the
disk and is a small B-type sunspot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for isolated C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. ACE solar wind data
indicated velocities up to 450 km/s consistent with a high speed
stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled on day 1 (2 July). Days 2 and 3 (3
- 4 July) are expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jul to 04 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jul 088 Predicted 02 Jul-04 Jul 088/088/088 90 Day Mean 01 Jul 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jun 003/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jul 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul 010/015-007/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jul to 04 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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