Viewing archive of Thursday, 30 June 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jun 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed in the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be initially quiet on day one (1 July), becoming unsettled late in the day. Days 2 and 3 (2 - 3 July) are expected to remain unsettled. The increase in activity is forecast due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jul to 03 Jul
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Jun 089
  Predicted   01 Jul-03 Jul  087/087/087
  90 Day Mean        30 Jun 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Jun  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul  007/008-010/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul to 03 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%35%35%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%40%40%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

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