Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 June 2011

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jun 23 0135 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 173 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2011 :::::::::: CORRECTED COPY ::::::::::

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. There was only one flare during the past 24 hours, a B2 at 0458Z from Region 1239 (N18W14). Region 1236 (N16W32) is the largest region on the disk but has decayed somewhat and is now a 140 millionths, C-type sunspot group. Region 1239 and 1240 (S19E16) are both small, B-type sunspot groups.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours. Observations of the solar wind from the ACE spacecraft indicate a noticeable increase in solar wind velocity during the last three hours of the analysis interval with end-of-period speeds at about 600 km/s. The signatures appear to be consistent with a high speed stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active with a chance for minor storm periods at mid-latitudes and major storm periods at high latitudes for the next two days (23-24 June). Effects from the high speed stream should prevail early on the 23rd. An additional contribution to activity is expected sometime between 1200-1800Z on the 23rd due to the arrival of the halo CME observed on 21 June. Conditions should decrease to unsettled to active levels for the third day (25 June).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jun to 25 Jun
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Jun 093
  Predicted   23 Jun-25 Jun  095/095/095
  90 Day Mean        22 Jun 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun  008/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Jun  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun  018/018-025/030-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun to 25 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%15%
Minor storm30%30%10%
Major-severe storm15%20%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%25%15%
Minor storm35%35%10%
Major-severe storm25%30%10%

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