Viewing archive of Sunday, 12 June 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jun 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity remained very low. Isolated B-class
x-ray flares occurred. A B8 flare at 12/1714Z was from a region just
beyond the northeast limb. Region 1234 (S15E18) was the only spotted
region on the disk and remained a simply-structured Bxo group. A
prominence erupted from the west limb near N09W90 during 12/1341 -
1443Z and was associated with a CME. The CME had an estimated
plane-of-sky speed of 565 km/s and did not appear to be
Earth-directed. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to very low
during the period (13 - 15 June) with a chance for an isolated
C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during most of
the period. An active period was observed at Boulder during 12/1200
- 1500Z. ACE solar wind data indicated the continued presence of a
coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) with wind speeds in the 436
to 485 km/s range. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit was slightly enhanced, likely associated with
recent activity in old Region 1226 (S20, L=037), which departed the
west limb on 09 June.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (13 -
14 June) with a chance for active levels due CH HSS effects.
Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels on day 3 (15 June)
as the CH HSS begins to subside. There is a slight chance for a
greater than 10 MeV proton event at geosynchronous orbit on day 1
(13 June).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jun 085 Predicted 13 Jun-15 Jun 084/084/084 90 Day Mean 12 Jun 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun 008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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