Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 May 2011

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 May 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region 1208 (N11W48) produced an isolated C1/Sf at 15/1620Z. This region grew in area and is classified as an Eso type sunspot group. Region 1214 (S21E01) grew but remained a simple magnetic bi-polar group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low during the next three days (16-18 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active during the past 24 hours. Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicate the onset of a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind velocities increased throughout the period to about 590 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled, with a slight chance for isolated active periods on days one and two (16-17 May). Day three (18 May) is expected to be quiet as the CH HSS subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 May 095
  Predicted   16 May-18 May  092/092/090
  90 Day Mean        15 May 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 May  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 May  011/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May  008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%05%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%10%
Minor storm10%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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