Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 May 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 May 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 134 Issued at 2200Z on 14 May 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Three new regions emerged
in the last 24 hours, Region 1213 (S21W80), Region 1214 (S20E17),
and Region 1215 (S23W30). All are small and magnetically simple.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low. A slight chance for a C-class flare exists for the next
three days (15-17 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a chance for an active
period, and a slight chance for a minor storm period late on day 1
(15 May). The increase in activity is forecast due to a coronal
hole high speed stream becoming geoeffective. Unsettled conditions
are expected to persist for days 2 and 3 (16-17 May) with a slight
chance for isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 May 091 Predicted 15 May-17 May 092/092/090 90 Day Mean 14 May 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 May 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 May 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 012/012-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 May to 17 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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