Viewing archive of Friday, 13 May 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 May 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for days one through three (14-16 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (14 May). Days two and three (15-16 May) are expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods. The increase in activity is forecast due to a coronal hole high speed stream becoming geo-effective.
III. Event Probabilities 14 May to 16 May
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 May 092
  Predicted   14 May-16 May  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        13 May 109
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 May  002/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 May  003/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May  005/008-012/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May to 16 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%20%15%
Minor storm01%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%30%10%
Minor storm01%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%

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