Viewing archive of Thursday, 12 May 2011

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 May 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. A single C2/1F was observed at 12/1236Z. The x-ray event and flare are likely associated with a filament which disappeared between 12/1216Z-1231Z located near N18E47.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low during days one through three (13-15 May). Region 1208 (N21W06) is the most likely region for activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one and two (13-14 May). Day three (15 May) is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a slight chance for an isolated active period, late in the day. The increase in activity is forecast due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becoming geo-effective.
III. Event Probabilities 13 May to 15 May
Class M 05%05%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 May 093
  Predicted    13 May-15 May  090/090/090
  90 Day Mean        12 May 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 May  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 May  005/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May  008/010-008/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May to 15 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%10%
Minor storm 01%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm 10%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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