Viewing archive of Monday, 25 April 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Apr 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 115 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Apr 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was very low.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is forecast to be very
low to low with a slight chance for a M-class flare from Region 1195
(S16W12) for the next 3 days (26-28 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be mostly quiet on days 1 and 2 (26-27 April), and quiet
to unsettled with a chance for active conditions on day 3 (28 April)
due to recurrent coronal hole effects.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Apr to 28 Apr
| Class M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Apr 112 Predicted 26 Apr-28 Apr 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 25 Apr 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Apr 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Apr 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr 005/005-005/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Apr to 28 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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