Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 April 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Apr 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Apr 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1195 (S16E14) produced
several impulsive C-class flares during the period. This spot group
maintained a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration, though also showing
signs of decay with a decrease in area. Region 1193 (N17W57) was
stable and quiet during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is forecast to be low
with a chance for a M-class x-ray event in the next 3 days (24-26
April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with the exception of an
isolated period of active conditions between 23/09Z and 23/12Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days (24-26 April).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Apr to 26 Apr
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Apr 119 Predicted 24 Apr-26 Apr 118/115/115 90 Day Mean 23 Apr 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Apr 003/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Apr 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Apr to 26 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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