Viewing archive of Monday, 11 April 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Apr 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was low. At 11/0912Z GOES 15 XRS
detected a B9.2 flare. The flare was off the east limb from
returning old Region 1176 (L= 278). A CME was observed on Stereo B
EUV imagery at approximately the same time. This region also
produced a C-class flare at 11/1602Z. The other regions on the
visible disk were quiet and stable. New Region 1190 (N12E35) was
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a chance for C-class flares for the next three days
(12 - 14 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind
speeds measured at the ACE Spacecraft increased from approximately
360 km/s to approximately 420 km/s in response to a coronal hole
high-speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next three days (12 -
14 April) as the coronal hole high-speed stream effects decrease.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Apr to 14 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Apr 106 Predicted 12 Apr-14 Apr 100/100/105 90 Day Mean 11 Apr 101
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr to 14 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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