Viewing archive of Saturday, 9 April 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Apr 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 099 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. A C1 flare was
observed from Region 1184 (N14W85) at 09/1545Z. Region 1185 (N18E15)
produced a B8/Sf flare at 09/0050Z. A partial-halo CME was observed
on SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 09/0024Z, with a speed of approximately
275 km/s. Region 1185 (N18E15) showed an increase in spots. No
regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low with a chance for C-class flares for the next three days (10-12
April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated
active levels at high latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active
levels at mid-latitudes and isolated minor storm levels at high
latitudes, for the next two days (10-11 April). The increase in
activity is due to a coronal hole high-speed stream. Activity is
expected to decrease to predominately quiet levels on day three (12
April). The partial-halo CME referenced in paragraph IA, is not
expected to be geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Apr 105 Predicted 10 Apr-12 Apr 100/095/100 90 Day Mean 09 Apr 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr 012/012-010/012-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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