Viewing archive of Thursday, 7 April 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Apr 08 0025 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY :::::::::: SDF Number 097 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Four C-class flares
were observed during the period from a region on the NE limb. New
Region 1187 (S19E62) was numbered today as an alpha group. A CME was
observed from the SE limb on SOHO/LASCO C3 imagery at 07/0754Z, with
a speed of approximately 548 km/s. The origin of the CME appears to
be an active filament channel in the SE quadrant. This CME is not
expected to be geoeffective. A second CME was observed from the SW
limb on SOHO/LASCO C3 imagery at 07/1042Z, with an approximate
speed of 824 km/s. The origin appears to be a flare from old Region
1176, which rotated off the west limb on 04 April. This CME is also
not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet levels. A single
unsettled activity period was observed between 07/0000Z - 07/0300Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (08-09 April).
Activity is expected to increase on day three (10 April) due to a
coronal hole high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Apr to 10 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Apr 112 Predicted 08 Apr-10 Apr 110/100/095 90 Day Mean 07 Apr 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr 016/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr 005/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 005/005-005/005-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr to 10 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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