Viewing archive of Sunday, 3 April 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Apr 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 093 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1183 (N17W25) produced a
C1 event at 03/0519Z. A CME was associated with a B8/Sf event from
Region 1173 (S18W86) at 02/2347Z. At 03/0024Z, Goes-15 SXI imagery
detected material movement from the SW limb that was later observed
in STEREO-B COR2 imagery at 03/0109Z and STEREO-A COR2 imagery at
03/0409Z. Using this imagery, a preliminary plane-of-sky speed
estimate of 322 km/s was assigned.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for moderate activity (isolated
M-class) from Region 1183 during the period (04 - 06 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels in response
to a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (04 - 06 April).
The CME mentioned above is not expected to be geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Apr 114 Predicted 04 Apr-06 Apr 110/105/105 90 Day Mean 03 Apr 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr 013/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr to 06 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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