Viewing archive of Saturday, 2 April 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Apr 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 092 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Apr 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1183 (N15W12)
produced only B-class events.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a chance for moderate activity (isolated M-class)
from Region 1183 during the period (03 - 05 April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels in response to a
coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during day one (03
April) with a chance for active levels as CH HSS effects persist.
Activity is expected to decrease to mostly quiet levels during days
two and three (04 - 05 April) as CH HSS effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Apr to 05 Apr
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Apr 108 Predicted 03 Apr-05 Apr 110/110/105 90 Day Mean 02 Apr 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Apr 009/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Apr 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Apr-05 Apr 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Apr to 05 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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