Viewing archive of Wednesday, 30 March 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Mar 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 089 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels. Isolated B- and C-class flares were observed from Region 1176 (S17W37) and Region 1183 (N15E27). Region 1176 showed magnetic simplification and was classified as an Fso group with a beta magnetic structure. Region 1183 showed a minor increase in spot count and area and was classified as an Eai group with a beta magnetic structure. Two filaments disappeared during the period. The first was 9 degrees in extent, centered near N48E16, and disappeared early in the period. The second was 7 degrees in extent, centered near S27E21, and disappeared around mid-period. There was no significant CME activity associated with either disappearance. A back-sided partial-halo CME was observed early in the period, first visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 images at 29/2024Z, with an estimated plane-of-sky velocity of 1075 km/sec. The source of the CME was an active region about a day beyond the northeast limb. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low during the period (31 March - 02 April) with a chance for moderate activity (isolated M-class).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to active levels. An active period was observed during 30/0000 - 0300Z, followed by quiet levels for the rest of the period. A geomagnetic sudden impulse (SI) was observed at 30/0018Z (12 nT, as measured by the Boulder USGS magnetometer). ACE solar wind data indicated the increased activity was associated with a period of southward IMF Bz (maximum deflection -8 nT at 29/2306Z) combined with increased IMF Bt (peak 15 nT at 29/2359Z).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (31 March - 01 April) with a chance for brief active levels due to recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream effects. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels on day 3 (02 April) as coronal hole effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Mar to 02 Apr
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Mar 118
  Predicted   31 Mar-02 Apr  125/130/135
  90 Day Mean        30 Mar 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar  002/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Mar  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr  010/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar to 02 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%10%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%15%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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