Viewing archive of Friday, 25 March 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Mar 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 084 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Mar 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Only isolated B-class and low-level C-class events were observed during the period, all from Region 1176 (S16E30). The region grew in area and spot count, mostly from new development just to the NNE of the large leader spot. Both Regions 1177 (N21E24) and 1178 (S15E55) developed penumbra in their leader spots and were classified as bi-polar C-type groups. Two new regions rotated on the disk during the period; Region 1180 (N26E66) and Region 1181 (S23E69), both H-type groups. A partial Halo CME was first observed at 24/1203Z in LASCO C3 imagery extending through the northern hemisphere of the solar disk. The likely source was from the M1/1f flare from Region 1176 at 24/1207Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days (26 - 28 March) with a chance for M-class activity, primarily from Region 1176.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. ACE solar wind data indicated a gradual decrease in velocities from a high of near 500 km/s at 24/2304Z to a low of about 400 km/s at 25/1438Z. During the period, IMF Bz was variable between +5 nT and -4 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet levels for the days one and two (26 - 27 March). By day three (28 March), quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods, are possible due to effects from the 24 March CME.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Mar 113
  Predicted   26 Mar-28 Mar  120/125/130
  90 Day Mean        25 Mar 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Mar  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Mar  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Mar-28 Mar  005/005-005/005-010/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Mar to 28 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%20%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%25%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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