Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 March 2011

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Mar 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 083 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Mar 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 1176 (S16E44) produced an isolated impulsive M1/1F flare at 24/1207Z associated with minor radio emission and a partial-halo CME (estimated plane-of-sky velocity 421 km/s). It also produced occasional B- and C-class flares during the period. Region 1176 showed a minor increase in intermediate spots and was classified as an Eki with a moderately complex beta-gamma magnetic configuration. New Regions 1178 (S13E68) and 1179 (N09W32) were numbered. Both were small and magnetically simple sunspot groups.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low during the period (25 - 27 March) with a chance for another M-class flare from Region 1176.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. ACE solar wind data indicated Earth remained under the influence of a coronal hole high-speed wind stream. Solar wind velocities were variable in the 419 to 500 km/s range. IMF Bz was northward during most of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at mostly quiet levels through the period (25 - 27 March).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Mar 108
  Predicted   25 Mar-27 Mar  110/115/120
  90 Day Mean        24 Mar 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Mar  009/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Mar  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Mar-27 Mar  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Mar to 27 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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