Viewing archive of Wednesday, 23 March 2011

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Mar 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 082 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 1176 (S15E58) produced an isolated impulsive M1 flare at 23/0217Z associated with weak radio emission. It also produced occasional B- and C-class flares. Region 1176 rotated more fully into view and was classified as an Eko-type group with a moderately complex beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Region 1175 (N11W76) was quiet and stable as it approached the west limb. New Region 1177 (N21E51) was numbered as a magnetically simple, single-spot Axx-type.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at mostly low levels during the period (24 - 26 March) with a chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 1176.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels, with a brief interval of active levels detected at Boulder at around 23/0700Z. ACE solar wind data indicated the increased activity was the result of a coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind velocities gradually increased from 358 to 547 km/sec during the period. IMF Bt increased during the period with a maximum of 11 nT observed at 23/0714Z. IMF Bz was variable during the period and ranged from -6 to +8 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (24 - 25 Mar) with a chance for brief active levels as coronal hole effects persist. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels on day 3 (26 March) as coronal hole effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
Class M 30%30%30%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Mar 105
  Predicted    24 Mar-26 Mar  105/105/110
  90 Day Mean        23 Mar 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Mar  008/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar  008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm 05%05%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm 10%10%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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