Viewing archive of Wednesday, 23 March 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Mar 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 082 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
1176 (S15E58) produced an isolated impulsive M1 flare at 23/0217Z
associated with weak radio emission. It also produced occasional B-
and C-class flares. Region 1176 rotated more fully into view and was
classified as an Eko-type group with a moderately complex beta-gamma
magnetic configuration. Region 1175 (N11W76) was quiet and stable as
it approached the west limb. New Region 1177 (N21E51) was numbered
as a magnetically simple, single-spot Axx-type.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
mostly low levels during the period (24 - 26 March) with a chance
for an isolated M-class flare from Region 1176.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels, with a
brief interval of active levels detected at Boulder at around
23/0700Z. ACE solar wind data indicated the increased activity was
the result of a coronal hole high-speed stream. Solar wind
velocities gradually increased from 358 to 547 km/sec during the
period. IMF Bt increased during the period with a maximum of 11 nT
observed at 23/0714Z. IMF Bz was variable during the period and
ranged from -6 to +8 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during days 1 - 2 (24 -
25 Mar) with a chance for brief active levels as coronal hole
effects persist. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels on
day 3 (26 March) as coronal hole effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Mar 105 Predicted 24 Mar-26 Mar 105/105/110 90 Day Mean 23 Mar 095
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar 008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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