Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 March 2011

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Mar 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 078 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 1175 (N14W22) grew both in areal coverage and spot count and remained a simple bi-polar group. The remainder of the disk and limb was quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at predominately very low levels with a chance for C-class activity on day one (20 March). Days two and three (21 - 22 March) will see an increasing chance for C-class activity, with a slight chance for isolated M-class activity, due to the return of old Regions 1165 (S20, L=198) and 1164 (N24, L=179).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind velocities, as measured at the ACE satellite, averaged 350 km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary field did not vary much beyond +/- 4nT through the period. A change in magnetic field vector from a positive (away) to a negative (toward) orientation was observed at about 19/1800Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet levels for the next three days (20 - 22 March).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Mar to 22 Mar
Class M01%10%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Mar 089
  Predicted   20 Mar-22 Mar  090/095/100
  90 Day Mean        19 Mar 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Mar  003/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar to 22 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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