Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 March 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Mar 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 078 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 1175
(N14W22) grew both in areal coverage and spot count and remained a
simple bi-polar group. The remainder of the disk and limb was quiet
and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately very low levels with a chance for C-class activity on
day one (20 March). Days two and three (21 - 22 March) will see an
increasing chance for C-class activity, with a slight chance for
isolated M-class activity, due to the return of old Regions 1165
(S20, L=198) and 1164 (N24, L=179).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind velocities, as measured
at the ACE satellite, averaged 350 km/s. The Bz component of the
interplanetary field did not vary much beyond +/- 4nT through the
period. A change in magnetic field vector from a positive (away) to
a negative (toward) orientation was observed at about 19/1800Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet levels for the next three days
(20 - 22 March).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Mar to 22 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 10% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Mar 089 Predicted 20 Mar-22 Mar 090/095/100 90 Day Mean 19 Mar 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar to 22 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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