Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 March 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Mar 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 075 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. During the period, Region 1169 (N17W75) produced a few low-level C-class events including a long-duration (LDE) C3/Sf flare at 16/2034Z. The flare was still in progress at the time of this writing. Associated with this LDE was a partial-halo CME, first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 16/1912Z. A preliminary plane-of-sky estimate indicated a velocity near 500 km/s. The region maintained its beta-gamma magnetic classification as it approached the west limb. New Region 1173 (S28E39) emerged on the disk as a bi-polar C-type group. The Penticton 10.7 cm flux and the 90-day mean are estimated for today (16 March) due to flare enhanced readings.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an M-class event from Region 1169 for the next two days (17 - 18 March). On day three (19 March), activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Observations from the ACE satellite indicated solar wind velocities averaged about 370 km/s while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was mostly north at +1 to +5 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (17 - 19 March).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
Class M25%05%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Mar 095
  Predicted   17 Mar-19 Mar  090/085/080
  90 Day Mean        16 Mar 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar  000/000
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Mar  001/002
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

23%
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/03/28X1.1
Last M-flare2024/03/29M3.2
Last geomagnetic storm2024/03/25Kp5 (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
February 2024124.7 +1.7

This day in history*

Solar flares
12001X2.45
22014X1.45
32023X1.2
42024M3.2
52001M3.13
ApG
1199928G2
2200337G1
3201328G1
4200122G1
5199820G1
*since 1994

Social networks