Viewing archive of Monday, 14 March 2011

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Mar 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 073 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Mar 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 1169 (N18W47) produced an impulsive M4/1n flare at 14/1952Z with associated radio bursts at the higher range (4995, 8800, 15400 MHz). Region 1166 (N09W78) and 1169 are both Dao type spot groups and contain a beta-gamma magnetic classification.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an M-class event for day one (15 March). Low activity with a slight chance for an M-class event are expected for days two and three (16-17 March) as Regions 1166 and 1169 make their transit around the west limb of the sun.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speeds observed by the ACE spacecraft continue to average around 550 km/s under the influence of a coronal hole high speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days (15-17 March).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
Class M40%20%15%
Class X05%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Mar 107
  Predicted   15 Mar-17 Mar  105/100/100
  90 Day Mean        14 Mar 094
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Mar  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Mar  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Mar to 17 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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