Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 March 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Mar 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 071 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 1166 (N08W52) produced an M1/2n flare at 12/0443 and a C9/1F at 12/1527Z. Both flares were accompanied by a Type II radio emissions and waves in SDO/AIA 193 imagery. Region 1166 maintained its complex Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic characteristics and ended the period as an Ekc type spot group. Regions 1169 (N19W22) and 1172 (N12E54) were stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate for the next three days (13-15 March).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. A solar sector boundary crossing was observed at the ACE spacecraft late on 11 March; the phi angle shifting to the positive sector at approximately 11/2200Z. Solar wind speed at ACE rose steadily, ending the period near 550 km/s as the coronal hole high speed stream became geoeffective. The initially southward Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field turned mostly northward after 11/0000Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active for the next three days under the continued effects of the coronal hole high speed stream. There is a slight chance for minor storm conditions at high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Mar 121
  Predicted   13 Mar-15 Mar  120/120/120
  90 Day Mean        12 Mar 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar  018/040
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Mar  010/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar  012/018-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar to 15 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%35%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%10%01%

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