Viewing archive of Sunday, 6 March 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Mar 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 065 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was low. Regions 1164 (N24W46), 1165
(S20W68), 1166 (N11E27), and a new region numbered today as 1169
(N21E56) have all produced C-class events in the past 24 hours. The
largest of these was a C8 at 06/1444Z from Region 1164. This region
continues to maintain its Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a chance for a M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with one period of unsettled
conditions reported at 06/1500Z. Observations from the ACE
spacecraft observed a period around 06/1350Z of southward Bz to -5nT
and a Bt of +6nT. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions,
and a slight chance for minor storm levels at high latitudes, for
day one (07 March). This activity is expected due to the possible
arrival of the CME observed on 03 March. Predominately quiet
conditions are expected for days two and three (08-09 March).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Mar to 09 Mar
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Mar 143 Predicted 07 Mar-09 Mar 145/145/145 90 Day Mean 06 Mar 090
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar 008/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar to 09 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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