Viewing archive of Saturday, 5 March 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Mar 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 064 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 1163 (N17W51), 1164 (N24W34) and Region 1165 (S21W52) produced several low level C-class flares during the last 24 hours. Region 1164 and 1166 (N10E41) have both continued to grow in white light areal coverage and spot count. Region 1164 is a Fkc type spot group and has maintained its Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. Region 1166 is a Eki type spot group and has formed a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicate very little influence is left from the coronal hole high speed stream which has dominated for the past five days. Solar wind speeds are now averaging below 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated periods of active conditions, and a slight chance for minor storm periods at high latitudes, for the next two days (06-07 March). The activity is expected due to the possible arrival of the CME observed on 03 March. Predominately quiet conditions are expected to return on day three (08 March).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Mar to 08 Mar
Class M45%45%45%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Mar 135
  Predicted   06 Mar-08 Mar  130/130/130
  90 Day Mean        05 Mar 089
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar  007/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Mar  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar  008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar to 08 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%05%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%05%
Minor storm10%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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