Viewing archive of Friday, 4 March 2011

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Mar 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 063 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Several small C-class flares were observed from Region 1164 (N23W14). This region was classified as an Ekc type spot group with Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic characteristics. Region 1166 (N09E55) more than tripled in size over the past 24 hours and the number of spots doubled. Region 1166 was classified as an Eac type spot group with Beta magnetic characteristics. Region 1168 (N24W73) emerged on the disk as a small bipolar group. Two East limb CMEs were observed in both SOHO LASCO and STEREO imagery, although neither appeared to be Earth-directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. More C-class flares are expected from Regions 1164 and 1166, with a chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A waning coronal hole high speed stream remained geoeffective and solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft was approximately 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active levels with a slight chance for minor storm periods at high latitudes for the next three days (05-07 March). Model guidance suggests a possible arrival on day two (06 March) of an Earth-directed CME observed early on 03 March. This slow-moving CME is expected to bring a slight chance for major storm conditions at high latitudes. Activity levels are anticipated to decrease on day three (07 March).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
Class M 35%35%35%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Mar 127
  Predicted    05 Mar-07 Mar  125/125/125
  90 Day Mean        04 Mar 089
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar  011/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Mar  010/012
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar  010/012-008/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%05%
Minor storm 05%10%01%
Major-severe storm 01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%30%25%
Minor storm 10%15%10%
Major-severe storm 05%10%05%

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