Viewing archive of Friday, 25 February 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Feb 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 056 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was at very low to low levels. Region
1163 (N17E60) produced a majority of the x-ray activity the past 24
hours with the largest event a C1 at 25/0544Z. As Region 1163
rotates onto the disk, it appears the long axis to be sharply tilted
in a NE to SW orientation with a complex inversion line. As a
result, the region is now classified as a beta-gamma. New Region
1164 (N28E76) rotated onto the disk as a large H-type spot and was
responsible for a C1 x-ray event at 25/1729Z. A 24 degree long
filament, centered near N34E40, was observed first lifting off the
disk at 25/0637Z visible in SDO/AIA 171 imagery.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days (26 - 28 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet at all latitudes. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during
the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (26 - 28
February).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Feb 088 Predicted 26 Feb-28 Feb 092/094/096 90 Day Mean 25 Feb 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb 000/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb 001/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb to 28 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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