Viewing archive of Wednesday, 23 February 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Feb 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 054 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 1161 (N13W69) produced the periods only C-class event, a C1 at 23/1223Z. Both Region 1161 and Region 1162 (N18W73) have decayed significantly and have a simple Beta magnetic classification.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three days (24-26 February). There is a chance for an isolated C-class event from Region 1161 before it rotates off the visible disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet with an isolated unsettled period at 23/1500-1800Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet on day one (24 February). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three (25-26 February).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Feb to 26 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Feb 089
  Predicted   24 Feb-26 Feb  085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        23 Feb 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb  001/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Feb  002/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb  005/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb to 26 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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