Viewing archive of Monday, 21 February 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Feb 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 052 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 1161 (N11W42) produced multiple C-class events and remains an E-type sunspot group with a beta-gamma magnetic classification, while Region 1162 (N17W46) remained stable and quiet. The periods largest x-ray event a C7 at 21/1012Z came from Region 1158 which has rotated off the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate with a slight chance for an X-class event from Region 1161 for the next three days (22-24 February).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours. Solar wind data from the ACE spacecraft indicated a slight drop in velocity to around 380 km/s and sustained negative Bz of -4nT during the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for isolated active periods during the next three days (22-24 February).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Feb 097
  Predicted   22 Feb-24 Feb  098/098/095
  90 Day Mean        21 Feb 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Feb  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb  007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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