Viewing archive of Sunday, 20 February 2011

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Feb 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 051 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Feb 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Region 1161 (N11W28) grew slightly in areal coverage and maintained a beta-gamma magnetic classification. Region 1162 (N18W32) remained stable throughout the period. Both regions produced C-class activity and Region 1161 produced a long duration B6 event at 20/1837Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate for the next three days (21-23 February). Regions 1161 and 1162 are both capable of producing M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (21-23 February).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
Class M60%60%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Feb 105
  Predicted   21 Feb-23 Feb  100/100/095
  90 Day Mean        20 Feb 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Feb  003/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Feb  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Feb-23 Feb  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Feb to 23 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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