Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 February 2011

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Feb 16 2205 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 047 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate with occasional M-class and frequent C-class events throughout the period. Region 1158 (S21W39) has produced two M-class flares; the largest an M1/1F at 16/1425Z with associated Type II radio sweep and a 330 sfu Tenflare. Growth in Region 1158 leveled off at 620 millionths but maintained its E-type configuration and beta-gamma-delta magnetic classification. Region 1161 (N13E25) produced an M1 x-ray event at 16/0139Z. LASCO imagery indicated an associated CME at 16/0248Z. Region 1161 has shown continual growth. The group currently has an area of 330 millionths and developed a beta-gamma magnetic classification.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for an isolated major flare for the next three days (17-19 February). Region 1158 is expected to produce more M-class flares and still has the potential for producing an M5 or greater x-ray event. There is a chance for isolated M-class activity from Region 1161.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. Solar wind velocities throughout the period gradually decreased to around 400km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet on day one (February 17). An increase to unsettled to active conditions, with a chance for minor storm periods is expected late on day one into day two (18 February). The increased activity is forecast due to the expected arrival of the CME associated with the X2 flare that occurred on 15/0156Z. Day three (19 February) is expected to be quiet to active as the disturbance subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
Class M 75%75%75%
Class X 25%25%25%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Feb 114
  Predicted    17 Feb-19 Feb  105/105/100
  90 Day Mean        16 Feb 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Feb  004/005
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb  018/018-025/025-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%20%
Minor storm 15%20%05%
Major-severe storm 01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%40%25%
Minor storm 20%25%10%
Major-severe storm 01%05%01%

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