Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 February 2011

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Feb 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been high. Region 1158 (S21W27) produced an X2 x-ray event at 15/0156Z associated with a Tenflare and a Type II radio sweep. A halo CME was associated with this event and had an estimated plane-of-sky speed around 710 km/s. Region 1158 has increased in area to 600 millionths and has a beta-gamma-delta magnetic classification. This region also produced multiple C-class events the largest being a C4 at 15/0432Z. New Region 1161 (N11E38) has grown and is currently a magnetically simple D-type sunspot group, but did not produce any flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for isolated high activity for the next three days (16-18 February). Region 1158 is the most likely source for activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been predominately quiet with isolated unsettled conditions to begin the period. Solar wind data from the ACE satellite indicated a drop in total field to around 4nT as the effects from yesterdays transient subsided. GOES-13 indicated an enhancement of the greater than 10MeV protons starting at 15/0710Z and peaking around 2.6 PFU at geosynchronous orbit. Solar wind velocities did increase slightly to around 500 km/s most likely due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (16 February). Day two (17 February) is expected to be quiet to active with a chance for minor storming late in the period. Day three (18 February) is expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storming. The increase in activity is forecast due to expected arrival of the CME from the X2 event described in part IA.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
Class M 60%60%60%
Class X 20%20%20%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Feb 113
  Predicted    16 Feb-18 Feb  103/100/100
  90 Day Mean        15 Feb 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb  006/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Feb  004/006
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  008/010-018/018-025/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%25%35%
Minor storm 01%15%20%
Major-severe storm 01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%45%45%
Minor storm 05%25%25%
Major-severe storm 00%05%05%

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