Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 February 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Feb 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 046 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been high. Region 1158 (S21W27)
produced an X2 x-ray event at 15/0156Z associated with a Tenflare
and a Type II radio sweep. A halo CME was associated with this event
and had an estimated plane-of-sky speed around 710 km/s. Region 1158
has increased in area to 600 millionths and has a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic classification. This region also produced multiple C-class
events the largest being a C4 at 15/0432Z. New Region 1161 (N11E38)
has grown and is currently a magnetically simple D-type sunspot
group, but did not produce any flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a chance for isolated high activity for the next three
days (16-18 February). Region 1158 is the most likely source for
activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been predominately quiet with isolated
unsettled conditions to begin the period. Solar wind data from the
ACE satellite indicated a drop in total field to around 4nT as the
effects from yesterdays transient subsided. GOES-13 indicated an
enhancement of the greater than 10MeV protons starting at 15/0710Z
and peaking around 2.6 PFU at geosynchronous orbit. Solar wind
velocities did increase slightly to around 500 km/s most likely due
to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (16 February). Day two
(17 February) is expected to be quiet to active with a chance for
minor storming late in the period. Day three (18 February) is
expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor
storming. The increase in activity is forecast due to expected
arrival of the CME from the X2 event described in part IA.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Feb 113 Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 103/100/100 90 Day Mean 15 Feb 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 006/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 004/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 008/010-018/018-025/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 45% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 00% | 05% | 05% |
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