Viewing archive of Sunday, 23 January 2011

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jan 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 023 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Regions 1147 (N24W36) and 1149 (N17W32) were quiet and stable. SOHO C2 imagery observed a CME liftoff at 23/0125Z off the northwest limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days (24 - 26 January. The CME mentioned in part 1A is not expected to be geoeffective.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jan to 26 Jan
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Jan 084
  Predicted   24 Jan-26 Jan  088/088/088
  90 Day Mean        23 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Jan  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan to 26 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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