Viewing archive of Thursday, 20 January 2011

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jan 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 020 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 1147 (N24E09) produced two low-level B-class flares during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet. An isolated unsettled period was observed at Boulder between 20/0900 - 1200Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (21 January). Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active levels at high latitudes, are expected on day two (22 January) due to a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Activity should decrease to quiet levels on day three (23 January) as the effects of the CH HSS wane.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Jan to 23 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Jan 082
  Predicted   21 Jan-23 Jan  082/082/082
  90 Day Mean        20 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Jan  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan  005/005-007/007-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan to 23 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%15%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%20%15%
Minor storm01%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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