Viewing archive of Wednesday, 19 January 2011

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jan 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 019 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 1147 (N25E22) produced a few low-level B-class flares during the period. Region 1147 remained a Cso group and retained its magnetic complexity, but decayed slightly in area and spot count. Region 1148 (S28W57) decayed to an Axx group with 1 spot.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active to minor storm levels were observed at high latitudes between 19/0900-1500Z due to a coronal hole high-speed stream.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet levels during days one and two (20-21 January). Quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active levels at high latitudes, are expected on day three (22 January) due to a new coronal hole high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Jan 081
  Predicted   20 Jan-22 Jan  082/082/082
  90 Day Mean        19 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Jan  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan  005/005-005/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan to 22 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%20%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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