Viewing archive of Tuesday, 18 January 2011

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jan 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 018 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2011

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 1147 (N26E37) showed a slight increase in area and was classified as a Cso beta-gamma group. Region 1147 remained the sole source of todays occasional to isolated B-class flares. Region 1148 (S28W46) is currently classified as a Cro-beta group with two spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low during the period (19-21 January). There is a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (19-21 January).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Jan 081
  Predicted   19 Jan-21 Jan  082/082/082
  90 Day Mean        18 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Jan  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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