Viewing archive of Tuesday, 18 January 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jan 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 018 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jan 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 1147
(N26E37) showed a slight increase in area and was classified as a
Cso beta-gamma group. Region 1147 remained the sole source of
todays occasional to isolated B-class flares. Region 1148 (S28W46)
is currently classified as a Cro-beta group with two spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low during the period (19-21 January). There is a chance for
an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (19-21
January).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jan 081 Predicted 19 Jan-21 Jan 082/082/082 90 Day Mean 18 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jan 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jan 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jan-21 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jan to 21 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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