Viewing archive of Monday, 17 January 2011
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2011 Jan 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 017 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2011IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity remained at very low levels. Occasional
B-class flares were observed during the period. The largest of these
was a B4 flare at 17/0634Z from Region 1147 (N25E52). Region 1147
was classified as a Cso-beta group with 12 spots. Region 1148
(S28W32) was numbered today as a Bxo-beta group with 4 spots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low, with a chance for an isolated C-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (18-20
January).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jan 082 Predicted 18 Jan-20 Jan 082/082/084 90 Day Mean 17 Jan 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan to 20 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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