Viewing archive of Saturday, 25 December 2010

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Dec 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Dec 2010

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Two new regions were numbered today as Region 1136 (S22W57) and Region 1137 (N18E23). Both regions are beta magnetic classifications.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Observations from the ACE spacecraft indicate a co-rotating interaction region signature, in advance of a coronal hole high speed stream, around 25/1430Z. The IMF Bt reached +10 nT while the IMF Bz was at -7 nT. Solar wind speeds have continued to increase through the period from 340 km/s to 400 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for days one and two (26-27 December) due to a coronal hole high speed stream and possible effects from the CME on 23 December. Quiet conditions are expected for day three (28 December).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Dec to 28 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Dec 079
  Predicted   26 Dec-28 Dec  080/080/082
  90 Day Mean        25 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Dec  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Dec  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec  008/008-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Dec to 28 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%00%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%05%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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