Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 December 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Dec 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was low. A 12 degree long filament,
centered at N24W68, erupted and was observed by ground-based
observers and in SDO/AIA 171 imagery lifting off the disk at
14/1449Z. Simultaneously, a long duration C2.3/Sf flare was observed
in Region 1133 (N15W61) at 14/1550Z. An associated CME, visible in
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery, was seen lifting off the northwest limb at
14/1536Z. The CME did not appear to be earth-directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
very low with a slight chance for a C-class x-ray event all three
days (15-17 December).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled as a coronal hole high
speed stream continued to influence the magnetosphere. Solar wind
speed at the ACE spacecraft ranged from 450 km/s at the beginning of
the period to approximately 650 km/s at forecast time.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected be quiet to unsettled for days 1 and 2 (15-16 December) due
to the continued influence of coronal hole high speed streams. Day
3 (17 December) is expected to bring a return to quiet conditions as
the influence of coronal hole high speed streams wanes.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Dec to 17 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Dec 090 Predicted 15 Dec-17 Dec 088/088/086 90 Day Mean 14 Dec 083
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 007/007-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec to 17 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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