Viewing archive of Saturday, 13 November 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Nov 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 1123 (S23W24) produced
the only C-class x-ray event of the period, a C1.3/Sf at 13/1128Z.
Associated with this event were radio bursts at 245 MHz and 410 MHz.
An eight degree filament with east-west orientation disappeared
from the disk near N31W09 around 13/06Z. A halo CME became visible
on LASCO C2 at 13/11Z and on C3 and STEREO coronagraphs by 13/21Z
with an earth sided trajectory. This event is believed to be
associated with the DSF at 13/06Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is forecast to be low
with a C-class x-ray event likely for the next 3 days (14-16
November).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with the chance for active
conditions on day 1 (14 November). Conditions are forecast to be
mostly active with the chance for minor storming on days 2 and 3
(15-16 November), due to the expected arrival of a combined shock
from multiple CMEs observed on 11 and 12 November.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Nov 085 Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 13 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 009/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 008/010-018/018-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov to 16 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 45% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 50% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 20% | 15% |
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