Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 October 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Oct 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 1117 (N22E28) grew
in area and spots as well as increased in magnetic complexity. It
produced a B4 x-ray flare at 23/2011Z. The characteristics of Region
1115 (S29W36) did not change much, though it produced a B3 x-ray
flare at 26/1738Z. The leading edge of the CME from a disappearing
filament on 21 October was visible on both STEREO A and B HI1
images.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is forecast to be
predominately low with a chance for a C-class flare on days 1-3
(24-26 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active with a period of
minor to major storming at high latitudes between 23/1200-1500Z as
the result of coronal hole effects. Solar wind speeds were near or
above 650 km/s throughout most of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be unsettled to active with isolated periods of minor
storming likely at all latitudes and a chance for major storming at
high latitudes for days 1-2 (24-25 October). Conditions are forecast
to be mostly unsettled to active with a chance for an isolated minor
storm on day 3 (26 October) at all latitudes. The elevated activity
is expected in part to a large, favorably positioned coronal hole as
well as a possible glancing blow on 25 October from the
aforementioned CME.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Oct 084 Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 084/084/084 90 Day Mean 23 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct 012/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 015/020-015/018-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct to 26 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 50% | 50% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 40% | 20% |
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