Viewing archive of Thursday, 21 October 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Oct 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Todays activity consisted
of occasional, low-level B-class flares. Most of these were either
from Region 1112 (S20, behind west limb) or Region 1117 (N23E48),
although at least one event appeared to originate from a new group
just behind the East limb (around N25). Regions 1113 (N16W31) and
1115 (S29W13) were quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low, although there is a slight chance for an isolated C-class event
during the next three days (22-24 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally quiet for the first day (22 October) and
about halfway through the second day (23 October). Sometime around
mid-day on 23 October and continuing through the third day (24
October), an increase to unsettled levels with a chance for active
periods is expected. There is also a chance for isolated storm
periods at some locations during this interval. The increase is
forecast because of expected effects from a high speed solar wind
stream from a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Oct to 24 Oct
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Oct 084 Predicted 22 Oct-24 Oct 082/082/082 90 Day Mean 21 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct 003/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct 005/005-010/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct to 24 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 35% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 15% |
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