Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 October 2010
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2010 Oct 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2010IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 1112 (S20W70)
produced a few C-class events during the period, the largest a
C1.3/Sf at 19/0651Z. Regions 1113 (N17W03) and 1115 (S29E13) each
produced moderate-level B-class activity. Two new regions were
numbered during the period. Region 1117 (N25E74) rotated onto the
disk as a large H-type spot group while Region 1118 (N16E61) formed
on the disk as a simple uni-polar spot group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately very low levels with a chance for C-class activity all
three days of the period (20 - 22 October). A slight chance for
M-class activity exists from Region 1112 on 20 October as the region
approaches the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels as a weak
coronal hole wind stream moved into a geoeffective position.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a chance for isolated active
periods, on days one and two (20 - 21 October) due to continued
coronal hole high-speed stream effects. By day three (22 October),
mostly quiet levels are expected.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
| Class M | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Oct 087 Predicted 20 Oct-22 Oct 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 19 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct 003/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 006/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct to 22 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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